Chapter 6 of 14 · 3 min read
Bull vs. bear markets
Understanding bull and bear markets is the core of the Crypto Blueprint.
What is a bull market?
A bull market, or "bull run", is a period when demand is high, investors are confident and prices rise consistently. Picture a bull charging ahead with energy. People who expect prices to go up are called the bulls.
Bull markets are for taking profits. When everyone around you is euphoric, that's the time to execute your selling plan, not to go all in.
What is a bear market?
Bear markets are the opposite: more supply than demand, low confidence and falling prices. Picture a bear hibernating. Investors who expect prices to keep falling are called the bears.
Bear markets are where long-term wealth is often built. Historically, the best entries came late in the bear market, when sentiment was at its worst.
Bitcoin's four-year rhythm
Every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years, the reward for mining new bitcoin is cut in half. This is the halving. The most recent one happened on April 20, 2024, cutting the reward to 3.125 BTC per block. The next is expected around 2028.
Each halving so far has been followed by a bull market, then a bear market, then a recovery:
| Halving | Cycle peak | Halving → peak | Peak → bottom | Peak-to-bottom drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2012 | Nov 2013 | 367 days | 410 days | about −85% |
| Jul 2016 | Dec 2017 | 526 days | 363 days | about −84% |
| May 2020 | Nov 2021 | 548 days | 376 days | about −78% |
| Apr 2024 | See the live data in Skyline Cycle Terminal |
Dates are approximate, based on daily closing prices.
The Blueprint for both seasons
- Buy low, sell high. It sounds obvious, but emotions make it hard.
- Watch for big dips. 20–40% corrections happen even inside bull markets. They're scary, but historically they've been buying opportunities.
- Bear markets have lasted about a year. Peak to bottom took 363 to 410 days in the last three cycles.
- Bull markets peaked 12 to 18 months after the halving in the last three cycles.
- Bitcoin fell roughly 75–85% from each cycle peak.
- Altcoins usually fall harder, often 90% or more, and many never recover.
- A full cycle has taken about four years.
Patterns, not laws. Bitcoin has historically moved in recurring cycles, but ETFs, institutions and global liquidity all shape each one. Don't treat past dates as a schedule. That's exactly why I built Skyline Cycle Terminal: to read where we are in the cycle with data, not emotions.
What does market cap mean?
Market cap is the total value of a coin: the number of coins in circulation multiplied by the current price.
Think of it like ships at sea. A big ship handles storms better than a small boat. Large-cap assets like Bitcoin tend to be more stable, though they still swing. Small caps are like small boats in a big sea: they can ride high on big waves, but they can also sink fast.
When is it altcoin season?
The Altcoin Season Index measures how many of the top altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the last 90 days.
- I treat a reading below 25 as Bitcoin season, when altcoins are out of favor and accumulation is cheaper.
- I treat a reading above 75 as altcoin season, a signal to start taking profits on altcoin positions.
These are my personal guideposts, not guarantees.